Sunnylands
& cold realities
Source: by P.R. Chari: The Tribune
What did President Obama and President Xi Jinping achieve in their much-hyped two-day meeting in the Sunnylands estate in California on June 7 and 8? No doubt, they got acquainted with each other, and took each other's measure. Apparently, the last such "blue sky" discussion took place between Chairman Mao and Richard Nixon in 1972. And the Chinese side had hoped that the two leaders would "have an extensive and in-depth exchange of views on bilateral relations as well as international and regional issues of common interest."
There were no surprises. Pre-summit speculation on the agenda proved accurate, and the issues discussed ranged from cyber-security to utilising cyberspace to human rights to climate change to North Korea. But these issues were not settled. US complaints of cyber theft by China were met with counter-allegations of electronic surveillance and data mining. China's support to imposing further sanctions on North Korea was appreciated, but it showed no enthusiasm to address the basic problem of deflecting Pyongyang's quest for nuclear weapons.
What was not discussed, however, was moderating the competition over fossil fuels and minerals, promoting China's entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, enabling the US to join the East Asia Summit, and seeking mutual understanding on regional disputes like Iran, Syria Afghanistan, and India-Pakistan relations. But the foundation was laid in Sunnylands to continue and extend the dialogue between the two countries.
But how far was China's larger purpose achieved to establish a "a new type of Great Power relationship"? Beijing assiduously promoted this objective to island the two countries and promote beliefs that they were the most powerful countries in the world, and Xi desired to treat President Obama as an equal partner. Did these objectives progress much further? Chinese scholars and officials were aware that the rise of new powers in the international system has always been attended by competition, rivalry, and tensions with the dominant world power.
In his book, "On China", Henry Kissinger informs that a hypothesis had been advanced in 1907 by Eyre Crowe, a British Foreign Service official, that predicted the course of Anglo-German interactions in the twentieth century. Crowe argued that the relations between an established United Kingdom and a rising Germany would clash, which did occur, resulting in the two highly destructive World Wars. At present, the United States, like the UK, is an established maritime power, whereas China, like Germany, is a rising continental power. Moreover, alliance relationships in the last century had shaped the international system. World War II was fought between the Allied and Axis powers, and the Cold War witnessed bitter rivalry between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Currently, the United States seeks to manage the tensions between its allies in the Asia Pacific region like South Korea and Japan on the "comfort women" issue. But China has embroiled itself comprehensively in multiple disputes with its East and Southeast Asian neighbours.
Despite this backdrop, the Asia-Pacific region has become the world's economic powerhouse.US trade with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries amounts to 56 per cent of its total trade, which increased from $1 trillion in 1994 to around $2.38 trillion in 2011. It was inevitable that a military dimension would be added to preserve this "Asian economic miracle". Significantly, five out of the seven major defence treaties signed by the United States are with APEC countries.
Apropos of this, the US "pivot" or "rebalancing" towards Asia envisages the transfer of some 60 per cent of its total naval assets into the Pacific Ocean; positioning of Marine forces to avail their expeditionary capabilities in Japan, Guam and the Pacific region; and, locating a Marine infantry company in Port Darwin, Australia, to train alongside the US partners in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. China's response has been to publish a map showing the South China Sea and all its islands under dispute as part of Chinese territory. Publishing it before the Sunnylands Summit perhaps sought to test Obama's will to global power. Clearly, the accrual to China's comprehensive national power has increased its confidence in dealing with the United States and evolves its own rules of international conduct. In other words, Xi Jinping's China seeks to make the rules, not merely follow the rules set by others.
Undoubtedly, the US financial crisis will inhibit its activism abroad. But it would need remarkable obtuseness to ignore that the US strategic vision for the Asia-Pacific plainly has China in its crosshairs. China's desire for "a new type of Great Power relationship" becomes explicable as a counter-point to the US policy of "pivoting" or "rebalancing" towards Asia. The US National Security Adviser, Tom Donilon, confirmed that the summit had felt that a "new model of relations between great powers" could be sought. What its outline will be is of great interest to the regional countries and, of course, India.
It is quite apparent, however, that much more trust will be needed to direct US-China relations into cooperative channels. How this trust will be generated remains to be seen. As Xi said, "We need to think creatively and act energetically so that working together we can build a new model of major country relationship." It remains a work in progress.
No comments:
Post a Comment