Iran reform

Iran reform

Source: By K.C. Singh: The Asian Age

The Iranians' message is that they want normality restored to Iran's international relations and economic stability re-established at home.

The June 14 Iranian presidential election produced a surprising result. Hassan Rowhani — the sole surviving moderate pitted against a phalange of conservatives with close links to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (SL) — won in the first round. In the 2005 election, although Hashemi Rafsanjani, the veteran, carried the first round, he fell short of simple majority and was beaten by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the runoff, the latter garnering the freed conservative vote. Iranian people’s message to the world as indeed the Supreme Leader is that they want civility and normality restored to Iran’s international relations and economic stability reestablished at home.

Mr Ahmadinejad was the first non-clerical Iranian President. But now people have reverted to a cleric, having undergone years of economic stringency under United Nations Security Council sanctions, supplemented by stiffer ones from the United States and Europe. The international reaction has been generally positive other than that of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who, fearful of relaxed sanctions, said that Mr Rowhani cannot soothe nuclear fears, the control being with Supreme Leader.

The Group of Eight (G8) Summit, held on June 17-18 in Northern Island, provided an opportunity to reflect on Mr Rowhani’s victory. French President Francois Hollande said if Mr Rowhani was constructive, Iran could be invited for the Geneva meeting on Syria, stoutly resisted by most earlier.

British Prime Minister David

Cameron has supported talks with Iran, his immediate problem being downgraded IranUK relations since 2011 when crowds over-ran the British embassy in Tehran. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov had claimed separately that Iran was willing to abandon 20 per cent uranium enrichment in exchange for lifting of sanctions. US officials had earlier characterised Mr Rowhani’s election as a “potentially promising sign”, supplemented later by US secretary of state John Kerry even suggesting direct talks.

Regrettably, the Indian reaction came on June 18 when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sent his felicitations. I would have expected Dr Singh to call as soon as the victory was obvious on June 16 or 17, recognising this as an important moment for Iran and its people.

What does it portend for the region and IndiaIran relations? Mr Rowhani walked off the stage in 2005, on Mr Ahmadinejad assuming office, after serving as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council for over a decade. His deputy, S.H. Mousavian, hounded by the Ahmadinejad government and now at Princeton, recounts in his book, The Iranian Nuclear

Crisis, that Mr Rowhani when appointed as chief nuclear negotiator on October 1, 2003, in a meeting with the Supreme Leader actually turned down the assignment accepting only when SL lamented that “this is a responsibility on my shoulders, relieve me of it.” Today, the situation is more complicated than it was in 2005. Iranian nuclear case is with the UNSC, sanctions are crippling Iranian economy and Iran is militarily committed to the survival of the Assad regime in Syria, bringing it into conflict with US-Israeli interests. On the positive side, Iran can be an asset in stabilising Afghanistan, curbing the spread of Wahabi-Al Qaeda extremism and de-escalating the Shia-Sunni confrontation in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen.

The conundrum is the old one, i.e. should it be an action-for-action or should Iran take some steps unilaterally towards making Iranian nuclear programme compliant with its international obligations? Mr Rowhani’s first press conference heralded change from Mr Ahmadinejad’s eight years of hectoring and bluster. He called IranUS relations “a wound that has not healed.” He talked of transparency in the nuclear programme and the need to enhance mutual trust and “constructive interaction with the world through moderation.” In Syria, he said he was opposed to civil war, terrorism and foreign intervention. The substance of all the arguments may be old, but the tone is different.

It was a decade ago, on June 16, 2003, that Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of International Atomic Energy Agency, submitted his first report on Iran to the board. Whether Mr Rowhani can reel back Iran from the abyss depends on what impact the election has on internal power equations in Iran where, after the 2009 election which also compro

mised the SL’s independence, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has gained ascendancy in the security and economic fields. Thus, Mr Rowhani’s ability to effectively engage his interlocutors abroad would depend on the internal power structure in Iran also rebalancing concomitantly. That SL allowed the people’s mandate to become public uncontested may be a sign that he realises that Iranian socio-economic stress may be at a point where it was dangerous to try rigging a verdict, as in 2009. If so, he may allow Mr Rowhani the leeway to start re-calibrating multiple friction points that Iran has with the US, Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, while getting the run-away tendencies of IRGC under control.

For India the change is welcome, as Indian anxiety has been mounting over the US-Pakistan endgame in Afghanistan. Keeping India-Iran relation on even keel in the last decade has been a challenge caught as India was between blossoming India-US relations and the relevance of Iran for Afghanistan, trade routes to Central Asia and as a reliable source for energy. Mr Karzai’s strong reaction to the manner of opening of the Taliban office in Doha only confirms Indian fears.

Hopefully, the Rowhani election would not be another opportunity lost. Former President Mohammad Khatami, elected in a similar wave in 1997, disappointed his young followers when he did not come to their rescue in his first term and student demonstrations were forcefully put down. In 2005, he explained that he wanted reform not counterrevolution. Iranian people have given reformists a second chance. Hopefully, for the region and Iran, Mr Rowhani will finesse it better than Mr Khatami.

Courtesy: http://www.ksgindia.com/study-material/today-s-editorial/8016-23-june-2013.html